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RE: Economics One O One.
Our service oriented economy. Our balance of trade is indicated by the size of the dot.
POINT OF NO RETURN
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JPhelps
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11/09/08 01:03pm |
Around the Campfire
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RE: Economics One O One.
The last to fall!
Our form of government hasn't historically been shown to last very long compared to many others.
Our government is less than 235 years old. We have been a world leader for how many of those years?
We have touted our democratic capitalistic form of government as 'the one'. It might be the best available but that is questionable because of its historically short life form. Greed usually wins out and destroys it.
We were providing the leadership, which has failed miserably. Just like Japan took our ideas and perfected them in the past, the rest of the world has been shown our economic model and they don't need us to provide leadership anymore.
The US economy most likely will not recover above the present recessionary level for at least a generation. Our large corporate manufacturing base is still leaving the country, at an accelerated pace now. The US labor pool is priced too high for the world market we find ourselves in. High Tech design and manufacturing is about all we have left and that production moves to the cheaper labor when it is feasable to do so. We are also not the only high tech capable source available anymore.
We have been the world leader in energy consumption. Now we have lots of newly rich competition for that. Under the present circumstances they can probably afford to pay for it better than we can.
This economic borrowing bubble grew for generations, and that is how far our economic level will be set back. The foreign lenders that have propped up our bubble will probably find a different place to invest in the future, a place that has a potential for real growth. We had our growth spurt, and it is over.
The American People are resilient, but if a person takes a realistic look at the cards that are on the table, the future outlook of the US economy doesn't look too rich. The only way we can regain our past riches is by blowing up another bubble. Are the people of the world that stupid? Maybe... maybe not. The only way the american citizen can hope to come out ahead is to do what the rich do, invest in successful companies wherever they might be. Only thing is, the average American citizen is going to find it hard enough just to pay the bills, much less invest in the stock market. We sure can't do it by working for minimum wage jobs, which are going to be the norm more and more in the future. The rich will certainly get richer and the middle class will certainly get poorer.
We are better off to take our licking and get on with our 'less rich' life right now than to continue throwing money at the problem and trying to prop up a non sustainable bubble. I don't like the prospect of a less bright future any more than anyone else, but that is what it is going to be.
We are not the only country in this mess for sure, but the countries affected the most are the historically more affluent ones. They will have some leveling to do also.
I guess the push will come now for the one world government, starting out with a world economic model.
Will our next form of government be the United Socialist States of America?
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JPhelps
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11/09/08 09:50am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: What or who do you blame for the financial crisis?
If what you say is true then the very wealthy may leave because America will cease to be a super power. Where will the very wealthy go? Perhaps a new thread is in order to debate the destination, immediately after November 4, of all those that are so fearful of "Spread the Wealth".
Me, I'll stay here in sunny Southern California and pay a little more taxes if I have to. Life goes on...
The wealthy probably won't leave as they will be the best equipped to do well in the ole USA, just like they always have. The US probably will still be a superpower (third world style), but the super part of the definition will be a lot less super. This problem has spread around the world, even to some of the Persian Gulf oil rich countries. All the major European countries, China and India,
Australia and New Zealand. Japan's stock market has been hit pretty badly, but I think they had a housing meltdown a few years back so they are probably better off than us on the mortgage market.
There are reports of plans in process for government works projects, like the New Deal after the '29 Depression. That will keep lots of people from starving, but it will probably mean unbridled inflation, since the national debt, both public and private is so large.
The bailouts are only going to prolong the inevitable. This country's balance sheet is non existent. Cheney told Bush that "deficits don't matter". Cheney was wrong. The US led the rest of the world into this mess. Now it is like the blind leading the blind. If the rest of the world still blindly follows the US' lead after this fiasco they are more stupid than I think they are. We will be lucky if our economy is only set back 10 years.
Yes, life goes on.
Quality of life??
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JPhelps
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11/01/08 06:51pm |
General RVing Issues
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RE: What or who do you blame for the financial crisis?
Has anyone thought of what level our economy and markets would be today if we hadn't gone off the gold standard, started using shady accounting practices, unsound business practices, and run up the housing bubble?
If we correct the mistakes and go legit that is probably the level of economy we should expect for the very near future.
But don't think our present leadership will ever go back to doing the right thing. I think it will take a purge to make that happen. That is why I think the road ahead will be bumpy for a very long time. As long as those same people have their hands on the cash flow things won't change to a very large degree. They have been spoiled to the easy money they made from those loose market practices. They are just like gamblers that are addicted to the roll of the dice.
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JPhelps
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10/28/08 10:01am |
General RVing Issues
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RE: Doom and Gloom!
I kinda wanted to put a smiley at the end of that post, but this thread is about doom and gloom, so I thought I had better restrain myself. ;)
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JPhelps
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10/28/08 08:43am |
General RVing Issues
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RE: Black Hills forest service OHV fee
$15 for a three day permit and $60 for a yearly here. They wanted to raise it this year but we protested it. The USFS steals from the OHV crowd and subsidizes the horse crowd at LBL National Recreation Area. At least that is the way we see it.
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JPhelps
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10/15/08 06:36am |
Around the Campfire
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Our economic Future Has Been Stolen
"World Bank Under Cyber Siege in 'Unprecedented Crisis'"
If there ever was a crystal ball to the future of the economy this was it.
Now is gone.
Now they would like to cover it up so we wouldn't find out.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,435681,00.html
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JPhelps
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10/10/08 09:22am |
General RVing Issues
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RE: Doom and Gloom!
Speaking of AIG...
The first time was fun. Let do it again.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/finance/aig-executives-blow--getting-bailout/
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JPhelps
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10/08/08 02:07pm |
General RVing Issues
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RE: If bail out passes and works
Well, looks like the stock market is going to tank anyway.
Long lasting recession in the works.
Homeless ranks swelling.
More foreclosures coming.
More banks going under.
Jobless numbers set to rise dramatically.
Lots of small and medium size industries going bankrupt.
Some local and state governments will need bailout.
ETC, etc.
But I think the bailout is going to work.
At least we will be able to save the bloated big money connected banks.
WHEW! I was worried for a while, but once again our glorious leaders have showed their true colors and stepped up to the plate. ;)
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JPhelps
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10/06/08 11:22am |
General RVing Issues
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RE: Doom and Gloom!
The Richest Country on Earth?...or....third world country?
Look at the figures and then decide.
http://thepoliticsofdebt.com/?p=344
This article is from April. A lot has happened since then.
Check out the sources though.
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JPhelps
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10/01/08 06:46pm |
General RVing Issues
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RE: The Economy & Bail Out Options
It doesn't matter where the money comes from as long as it gets into circulation. It can come from individual taxpayers just as well as it can come from the banks. As long as people spend the money it will get to the banks as deposits. Didn't you watch the cartoon on the news that explained it all?:)
Basically what fed was geting from the banks for their 700 billion was a post dated IOU that would come up for review by congress at the end of the IOU's 5 year term. Not for repayment, just for review. They can do that for taxpayers as well as they can do it for banks.
There are too many banks around anyway. The little berg up the road from me isn't even large enough to have a post office, I don't think it is even incorporated, but it has 3 banks, 2 grocery stores, 3 gasoline stations, etc. Why do they need so many banks?
The market is already up over 2% this morning. I think the lack of trust in the federal government is just as much a factor in the markets volatility as the lack of trust in wall street. Since the H.R. voted down the bailout it has restored some trust in the government, and therefore some trust in the market. Losing those large banks will be no problem to the economy as long as people trust the market enough to spend their money. The large majority of taxpayers don't trust wall street banks or the federal government. The action yesterday restored some of that trust.
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JPhelps
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09/30/08 09:13am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: The Economy & Bail Out Options
My take is that the fed should just send each taxpayer $2,333 and let us put it into circulation. It would help the liquidity crisis just as much as giving it to the banks. That would solve two problems really, the liquidity crisis and it would get rid of some of those bank managers that like to gamble with other peoples money.
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JPhelps
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09/30/08 08:23am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: Doom and Gloom!
Maybe the reason it didn't pass is that there could just possibly be enough members of the house that still have a conscience and still know the difference between right and wrong.
I think the bailout would just delay the inevitable anyway. If it goes bust now instead of dragging out maybe we can start rebuilding now instead of later.
JMHO
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JPhelps
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09/29/08 04:35pm |
General RVing Issues
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RE: Is today a good day to buy Fannie and Freddie
?
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JPhelps
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09/29/08 08:39am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: Doom and Gloom!
Anyone that thinks the USA is third world needs to get out more and visit more than just where the tour bus takes you.
I agree we have it pretty good in the USA, but we are running on momentum right now. We have two ways we can balance the books. We can print money to pay the debt, which will make it worthless, or we can use our avaliable assets to pay the debt, which will leave us with little of value. We don't have enough real manufacturing to build new wealth.
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JPhelps
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09/29/08 06:57am |
General RVing Issues
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RE: Doom and Gloom!
Seems like many posters here are wasting there time just giving us lowly RVers their insight, they should work for the government as economists. With all of their good advice we wouldn't be in this mess
Looks to me like anyone that can add well enough to balance a checkbook, and not loan money to someone that doesn't have the means to repay would qualify.;)
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JPhelps
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09/29/08 06:36am |
General RVing Issues
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RE: Doom and Gloom!
The United states is a third world country. Most people just haven't figured it out yet. Figure up the trade deficit in dollars per year per household. Then figure up the national debt in dollars per household. Add on the AIG bailout, the mortgage bank bailout, and all the other recent and very near future bailouts in dollars per household. Add on the average household debt.
Now subtract that from the average household income.
I haven't figured it up because I think I don't even want to know.
This is a very simplified scenario but it covers some of the basics.
This mess is world wide but foreign interests are buying up US assets at an increasing pace. We have a shrinking manufacturing base and high labor rate. Foreign nationals are taking over our jobs in the US because they will work for less. We are being shut out in our own country by corporations that now have to compete globally, and many of them have moved manufacturing overseas and got incentives from our Fed to do it. This market crisis we are in now will only help to equalize our living standard with the rest of the world. We will never fully recover to the point we were before. The top 1% are getting richer and the bottom 80% are not getting richer in the US and I expect that trend to continue.
The health of an economy in usually expressed in a monetary unit (like in a balance sheet) instead of how lucky or confident you feel. I don't think our sheet will balance. That is what makes me have no confidence at all in what Wall Street and the Fed is doing. When they balance our income with our outgo I will get a little confidence.
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JPhelps
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09/28/08 08:42pm |
General RVing Issues
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RE: WaMu Gives New CEO Mega Payout as Bank Fails
The Boards of Directors, over paid in almost all cases, of these corporations are the ones that hire and negotiate the contracts of the CEO's, over paid in almost all cases. It is just like a government, a good ole boy network. Since the board makes the rules they can get away with it in most cases. It takes a lot of money for 'a' person to influence the vote of a board of directors, and if you have that much money it puts you right in there as another good ole boy. It its very difficult to get a concensus among average stockholders of a corporation to change a vote.
So I put the blame for the whole thing on these less than genius individuals that have a highly overinflated sense of self worth and a very low moral integrity.
I put a private business owner in a very different category, since they are using their own money for their livelyhood and are therefore much more diligent in its use.
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JPhelps
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09/27/08 07:26am |
Around the Campfire
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WaMu Gives New CEO Mega Payout as Bank Fails
That's right, $20 million for 17 days on the job ... and his company failed.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,428641,00.html
Hey, its a tough job, but somebody has to do it. Right??
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JPhelps
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09/26/08 12:57pm |
Around the Campfire
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RE: Just a country boys solution to the AIG bailout
Yep,
I figure the big ($700,000,000,000) bailout, if distributed to each household (all types) in the US would come out to $6250. US Census estimates 112 Million households in '08.
Distributing the money to households with the stipulation that it be spent on mortgages or home improvement or capital investment would do more for the liquidity crunch than giving it to the banks, since the ones that will get the money have proven they don't know how to manage money. Let the failed banks fall. The ones that are left will take up the slack, and deservedly so.
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JPhelps
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09/26/08 12:42pm |
Around the Campfire
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